CAPC’s 2026 forecast shows parasite risk spreading into new areas

The Companion Animal Parasite Council’s 2026 Pet Parasite Forecast is the latest signal that vector-borne disease risk in dogs is continuing to spread beyond long-recognized hotspots. CAPC projects further geographic expansion of canine Lyme disease, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis, and heartworm across the United States, with notable movement into areas that many clinics and pet parents may still perceive as lower risk. (prnewswire.com)

That matters because CAPC’s annual forecast has become a practical surveillance tool for frontline veterinary medicine. The organization has published these annual forecasts since 2012, and says its models are designed to predict what veterinarians and diagnostic labs will actually find in dogs over the course of the year. According to CAPC, the forecasts are built from more than a decade of surveillance data and more than 10 million veterinary diagnostic test results annually, with historical accuracy above 94%. (capcvet.org)

The 2026 maps suggest several parallel shifts. Lyme disease risk is expanding beyond the Northeast and Upper Midwest into parts of the Midwest, Appalachia, the Northern Plains, and parts of the Southeast. Heartworm remains concentrated in the Southeast, but CAPC says it’s also moving northward along the Mississippi River corridor and Atlantic coast, with emerging pockets in the Mountain West and Northern California. Ehrlichiosis risk remains high across the Southeast, Southwest, and south-central U.S., while anaplasmosis is increasing in areas where Lyme risk is also growing. (prnewswire.com)

CAPC and outside coverage point to a familiar set of drivers behind the shift: warming temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, land use changes, wildlife movement, urban development, and pet travel. In Auburn University’s coverage of the forecast, Reif said ticks don’t disappear in winter and may be active whenever temperatures are above freezing, which helps explain why the traditional “tick season” framework is becoming less useful in some regions. That same piece described the forecast as a One Health tool, because canine positives can also serve as a sentinel for human exposure risk in the same environment. (vetmed.auburn.edu)

Industry coverage adds a little more color to how CAPC wants the profession to respond. In dvm360’s reporting on the release, CAPC board member Craig Prior, BVSc, CVJ, said “low risk does not mean no risk,” while executive director Chris Carpenter, DVM, MBA, framed the forecast as a way for veterinarians to anticipate risk instead of reacting after case counts rise. The same report said CAPC sees the data as support for year-round prevention, annual testing, and vaccination strategies tailored to local Lyme risk. (dvm360.com)

Why it matters: For veterinary teams, the practical takeaway is less about any single map color and more about a change in baseline assumptions. Clinics in historically lower-risk counties may need to revisit how they talk with pet parents about heartworm prevention adherence, tick control, screening, and travel-associated exposure. The forecast also supports a more localized approach to care: using county-level disease maps, 30-day forecasts, and real-time surveillance tools to shape reminders, testing recommendations, and vaccine conversations rather than relying on older regional heuristics alone. (veterinarypracticenews.com)

There’s also an operational implication. As risk expands into new geographies, veterinary teams may see more clients who are surprised by positive screening results, especially for tick-borne pathogens in dogs without obvious outdoor or wooded exposure histories. Reif noted that ticks can show up in backyards as well as forests, which underscores how prevention messaging may need to become both more routine and more specific. (vetmed.auburn.edu)

What to watch: The next key signal will be whether CAPC’s real-time and 30-day tools track the annual forecast as the 2026 season unfolds, and whether clinics respond by tightening year-round prevention protocols, adjusting Lyme vaccine recommendations based on local exposure risk, and increasing client education in counties newly moving into moderate- or higher-risk categories. (capcvet.org)