Study questions breed bias in five-star eventing performance: full analysis
A study examining the role of breed in FEI five-star eventing is pushing back on a common assumption in the sport: that Thoroughbreds are at a disadvantage against warmbloods and other non-Thoroughbred types at the highest level. Reviewing CCI5*-L results from 2014 through 2024, researchers found that breed did not significantly affect either overall penalties or the odds of completing the competition, despite clear differences within individual phases. (mdpi.com)
That finding lands in a sport where breed preference often shapes buying, breeding, and training decisions long before a horse reaches elite competition. Eventing’s five-star long format is the top tier of FEI competition, combining dressage, cross-country, and jumping, and horses must satisfy strict minimum eligibility requirements to get there. In practice, that means the population competing at CCI5*-L is already highly selected for talent, soundness, and management, which may help explain why broad breed differences in final outcomes were limited. This is an inference based on the FEI qualification structure and the study population, rather than a direct statement from the authors. (fei.org)
The study, “The Thoroughbred Theory: Influence of Breed on Performance at the CCI5*-L Level of Eventing,” was published in Animals and assessed all CCI5*-L events over the 2014-2024 period. According to the paper and related coverage, Thoroughbreds were significantly more likely than non-Thoroughbreds to complete cross-country without jump or time penalties, with 13.0% of Thoroughbred entries achieving that result versus 8.4% of non-Thoroughbreds. Industry reporting on the paper characterized that edge even more plainly, noting that Thoroughbreds were about twice as likely to complete cross-country without faults. But non-Thoroughbreds held advantages elsewhere, including fewer dressage penalties and a higher rate of clear show-jumping rounds. Overall, those strengths and weaknesses appeared to balance out in the final standings. (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
The paper also looked beyond a simple Thoroughbred-versus-non-Thoroughbred split by examining major breeds and studbooks represented at the five-star level, including Anglo-Arabians, Irish Sport Horses, Dutch Warmbloods, Hannoverians, Holsteiners, Oldenburgs, Selle Français, and others. Related coverage noted that some of the most favored sport-horse populations in eventing already carry substantial Thoroughbred influence, citing Thoroughbred blood percentages of 45.8% in Holsteiners and 52.7% in Selle Français horses. The authors suggested that this may be one reason breed categories alone do not tell the whole story, and they called for more work on the relationship between Thoroughbred blood percentage and elite eventing performance. (mdpi.com)
Expert reaction has centered on the idea that cross-country still exerts outsized influence on five-star success. In coverage cited by the Paulick Report, lead author Carleigh Fedorka told Horse & Hound that Thoroughbreds were more likely to go clear in cross-country than any other breed, and that once those results were factored into total penalties, the apparent breed gap disappeared. That interpretation fits longstanding views in the sport that stamina, gallop efficiency, and recovery remain decisive in long-format competition, even as modern breeding has emphasized dressage and jumping ability in many warmblood lines. (paulickreport.com)
Why it matters: For equine veterinarians, the study is a useful reminder to separate breed stereotype from individual assessment. Breed still may inform conversations about aptitude, conditioning demands, and likely strengths by phase, but it should not be treated as a stand-alone predictor of whether a horse can succeed at the top of the sport. For clinicians advising riders, trainers, breeders, and pet parents, that has practical implications in prepurchase exams, fitness planning, rehabilitation decisions, and return-to-sport counseling. It also supports a more nuanced message: a horse’s management, rideability, soundness history, and suitability for the demands of cross-country may be at least as important as its passport label. (mdpi.com)
What to watch: Expect follow-up discussion around pedigree depth, not just breed designation, especially whether the proportion of Thoroughbred blood correlates with performance, durability, or phase-specific success at the upper levels. Additional work could also explore how rider pairing, training history, and course design interact with breed-related traits in a population that is already heavily filtered by FEI qualification standards. (mdpi.com)