Mexico steadies after CJNG violence, but risks remain
Relative stability is returning in parts of Mexico after the February 22, 2026 military operation that killed CJNG leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, or El Mencho, and set off one of the broadest waves of cartel retaliation in recent years. Ackerman Group says security forces are reestablishing control and restoring transit corridors after the initial reprisals. Public reporting supports that near-term improvement: AP reported that El Mencho died after being wounded during an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco, and the U.S. Mission to Mexico said on February 25 that restrictions on U.S. government personnel tied to the violence had been lifted. (apnews.com)
The backdrop is significant. CJNG had become one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organizations, expanding as rival groups, especially the Sinaloa cartel, fractured. The Wilson Center said the February 22 operation reflected improved Mexican state capacity, but also warned that long-term progress against organized crime will require more than kingpin targeting. In other words, removing a leader can disrupt a cartel, but it doesn’t automatically dismantle the networks, finances, and territorial control underneath it. (mexicoelections.wilsoncenter.org)
In the immediate aftermath of El Mencho’s death, violence spread quickly. AP described the event as thrusting swaths of the country into chaos, while the U.S. Embassy’s February 22 alert told Americans in parts of Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Nuevo León to shelter in place because of security operations, road blockages, and criminal activity. By February 25, that alert had shifted materially: the embassy said all related restrictions on U.S. personnel had been lifted, embassy and consular operations had returned to normal, flight schedules had normalized, and it had no reports of road closures directed by local authorities. (apnews.com)
That said, “stabilizing” doesn’t mean “stable.” The broader U.S. travel advisory for Mexico still warns of violent crime, kidnapping, armed roadblocks, and restricted travel in several states, including some touched by the CJNG response. Analysts are also focused on what happens inside the cartel next. Janes assessed that El Mencho’s removal is likely to increase the risk of fragmentation during 2026, including the emergence of splinter groups that may not accept a successor. (travel.state.gov)
Outside experts are making a similar point. Anthea McCarthy-Jones of UNSW told ABC that removing a kingpin doesn’t necessarily create major disruption to trafficking networks, and she warned that violence could continue for months if the succession process is contested. The Wilson Center likewise argued that the strike on CJNG leadership may be strategically justified, but that any durable security gains depend on a broader, multidimensional approach. (abc.net.au)
Why it matters: For veterinary professionals, the practical issue is operational resilience. Security shocks in Mexico can interrupt movement of pharmaceuticals, vaccines, biologics, pet food, livestock inputs, lab specimens, and mobile veterinary teams, especially when road networks or airport access are affected. Even a short-lived wave of blockades can create missed appointments, delayed diagnostics, postponed herd visits, and inventory imbalances for practices and distributors serving both companion animal and production animal markets. The return of passable corridors is encouraging, but the risk profile for doing business across affected states remains elevated. (mx.usembassy.gov)
Veterinary organizations with staff, partners, or suppliers in Mexico may want to treat this as a reminder to review continuity plans: alternate shipping routes, extra lead time for critical medicines, communication trees for field teams, and contingency protocols for sample transport. That’s especially relevant for companies with cross-border operations, because a security event that begins as a local law enforcement story can quickly become a supply and service disruption story. This is an inference based on the reported road blockages, flight disruption, and ongoing regional travel restrictions. (mx.usembassy.gov)
What to watch: The next key variable is succession. If Mexican authorities can hold major corridors open and prevent renewed mass reprisals, the near-term business environment should keep improving. But if CJNG factions splinter or regional commanders compete for control, veterinary businesses should expect more localized, less predictable disruptions through 2026 rather than a clean return to pre-crisis conditions. (janes.com)